We can decide whether to maintain our old and no perfect market economy or looking for new paradigms. It is not an easy task as Masters of the Universe prefer to live in cyclical crisis which is very profitable for them. If economy shows a positive balance, they win. If economy is going down to the Hell, they win. On the contrary, ordinary people do not perform very well. They are being pushed to run in a bigger wheel of consumption and debt that is causing domestic bankruptcy for generations. And do not mention the rampant public debt.
I cannot explain better:
«The specter of protectionism is rising. It is always a dangerous and foolish policy, but it is especially dangerous at a time of economic crisis, when it threatens to damage the world economy. Protectionism’s peculiar premise is that national prosperity is increased when government grants monopoly power to domestic producers. As centuries of economic reasoning, historical experience, and empirical studies have repeatedly shown, that premise is dead wrong. Protectionism creates poverty, not prosperity. Protectionism doesn’t even “protect” domestic jobs or industries; it destroys them, by harming export industries and industries that rely on imports to make their goods. Raising the local prices of steel by “protecting” local steel companies just raises the cost of producing cars and the many other goods made with steel. Protectionism is a fool’s game».
Politicians say we do not have to lose our hope. May be it is the only advice they can offer as they do not have any other solution apart from increasing and increasing public spending. Therefore, we can understand why they highlight any minimum change their watchmen observe in the economic environment. They are signs of hope. Last week we receive information on one of them, that several big banks are starting to make profits. It is a positive news, of course, but we are not very sure that it means the arrival of winds of prosperity.
The budget is the main weapon of any politician. When he gets a government post, he makes the big difference because it is able to manage huge resources of money. It does not matter whether the economy is healthy. He always can use the deficit. Nobody is able to demonstrate that finally it will conduct to the bankruptcy. There is no Chapter 11 for Federal Governments.
China has been the great icon of globalisation. His powerful economic development was a sign of the prosperity of the decade. Every country made business with China and this country was the huge consumero f economic resources. When the financial crisis started, even the Chinese authorities thought they were going to be free from the economic problems and predicted a growth of a 9 percent of GDP for 2009.
Now we have evidence that China is also facing the crisis. He will grow more than any other developed country, but the effects of the crisis are emerging in his figures. Wing Thye Woo, Senior Fellow of the Brookings Institution, explains in China’s Short-term and Long-term Economic Goals and Prospects that
“China’s economic situation in 2009 does not look good. The IMF’s January 2009 projection of growth was 6.7 percent, which was down from its November 2008 projection of 8.5 percent. The February 2009 estimate of the number of jobs lost by migrant workers was 20 million, which was double the estimate of December 2008”.
Several analysts claim that the situation of China will affect to the recovery of the United States, as America needs the financial support of the big country. In fact, if China does not begin structural reforms in his economy, we can see a commercial war between two of the main nations of the Planet. “Some analysts say that the US housing bubble was able to continue only because China prevented the long term interest rate from rising by continually investing its large trade surpluses into Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae Bonds”.
The last thing we need is a war, according to the Brookings analista. We have to reinforce the public diplomacy strategy to persuade Chinese officials about the need to increase the reforms towards a more balanced economic system.
“China’s economy has been like a speeding car for almost 30 years. The high-probability failures that could cause the car to crash in the near future could be classified under three categories (1) hardware failure, (2) software failure, and (3) power supply failure”.
These three scenarios show serious problems like a banking and financial crisis, difficulties in Government with the explosion of social protest due to corruption and inequality, or external limitations to the China’s growth: climate change, a shortfall in energy resources and a commercial war with other countries. The author draws a pessimistic future over the best engine of the global progress.